Espacios vacíos y lugares híbridos: El impacto permanente de la pandemia y el teletrabajo en el sector inmobiliario.
El teletrabajo ha llegado para quedarse. Como resultado, la asistencia a las oficinas se ha estabilizado en un 30% por debajo de las cifras prepandémicas.(Fuente: McKinsey Global Institute. By Jan Mischke, Ryan Luby, Brian Vickery, Lola Woetzel, Olivia White, Aditya Sanghvi, Jinnie Rhee, Anna Fu, Robert Palter, Andre Dua and Sven Smit)
'Real estate in the world’s superstar cities has not kept up with shifts in behavior caused by the pandemic. The cities’ vibrancy is at risk, and they will have to adapt.'
* The ripple effects of hybrid work are substantial. Untethered from their offices, residents have left urban cores and shifted their shopping elsewhere. For example, New York City’s urban core lost 5 percent of its population from mid-2020 to mid-2022, and San Francisco’s lost 7 percent. Urban vacancy rates have shot up. Foot traffic near stores in metropolitan areas remains 10 to 20 percent below prepandemic levels.
* Demand for office and retail space in superstar cities will remain below prepandemic levels. In a moderate scenario that we modeled, demand for office space is 13 percent lower in 2030 than it was in 2019 for the median city in our study. In a severe scenario, demand falls by 38 percent in the most heavily affected city.
* Real estate is local, and demand will vary substantially by neighborhood and city. Demand may be lower in neighborhoods and cities characterized by dense office space, expensive housing, and large employers in the knowledge economy.
* Cities and buildings can adapt and thrive by taking hybrid approaches themselves. Priorities might include developing mixed-use neighborhoods, constructing more adaptable buildings, and designing multiuse office and retail space.
To what extent could real estate in superstar cities continue to suffer? In this research, the McKinsey Global Institute has modeled future demand for office, residential, and retail space in several scenarios. In those scenarios, demand for office and retail space is generally lower in 2030 than it was in 2019.
What is certain is that urban real estate in superstar cities around the world faces substantial challenges. And those challenges could imperil the fiscal health of cities, many of which are already straining to address homelessness, transit needs, and other pressing issues. But the challenges also provide an opportunity to spur a historic transformation of urban spaces. By becoming more flexible and adaptable in everything from the makeup of neighborhoods to the design of buildings—in essence, becoming more “hybrid” themselves—superstar cities can not only adapt but thrive.
Full Report (88 pages) --> https://lnkd.in/dpfDiu-A
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